Andres Arcila
Lead Data Scientist, Risk and Analytics @Affirm
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WORK HISTORY
Lead Data Scientist, Risk and Analytics @Affirm
Toronto, ON, CA
I lead analytics strategy and execution for key growth initiatives at Affirm, applying advanced causal inference techniques to drive measurable business impact. My work spans both high-complexity and high-volume projects, often in ambiguous problem spaces where KPIs and data structures are not yet defined- Drive experimentation and observational studies using Meta Learners, Matching, Synthetic Controls, and Multi-Armed Bandits- Lead roadmap development, prioritization, and KPI definition for key business areas- Mentor junior analysts and help scale analytics practices across teams- Partner cross-functionally to influence product and marketing strategy through rigorous measurement- Translate complex data insights into actionable growth strategies that ladder up to company goals
EDUCATION
UNIVERSIDAD LIBRE
Bachelors degree, Economics
University of Waterloo
Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.), Economics
Universidad Icesi
Master degree, Economics
Western University
Master of Arts (M.A.), Economics
Universidad del Valle (CO)
Bachelors degree, Foreign Trade
ABOUT ANDRES ARCILA
As a Data Scientist, I bring a rare combination of credit risk modeling expertise, forecasting, and deep specialization in causal inference and experimentation. I’ve led high-impact initiatives across risk assessment, program evaluation, and growth optimization—using both classical econometrics and modern machine learning. My background includes building and validating models for Causal Inference, forecasting, regulatory capital, expected losses, and uplift-driven targeting, and deploying them in production using scalable MLOps frameworks. With a Ph.D. in Economics and hands-on experience in both experimentation and large-scale modeling, I deliver data products that are scientifically rigorous, business-aligned, and ready for real-world deployment.
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