Justin Stow

About Justin Stow

I am currently a Senior Catastrophe Risk Modeler at Tokio Marine HCC, where I support enterprise risk management through the application and interpretation of probabilistic catastrophe models. My work focuses on weather-driven perils, with particular emphasis on tropical cyclones, earthquakes, and floods, and includes portfolio-level risk analysis, exposure evaluation, and loss estimation. I regularly assess hazard, vulnerability, and financial loss components of catastrophe models, conduct sensitivity and scenario analyses, and communicate model assumptions, limitations, and uncertainty to support underwriting, pricing, and portfolio management decisions.Throughout my catastrophe modeling career, I have developed extensive experience working with vendor catastrophe models (AIR, RMS, etc.), hazard datasets, and event-based loss frameworks, as well as model diagnostics, validation, and comparative analyses. My role requires the synthesis of atmospheric science, exposure data, and financial structures to evaluate risk across diverse portfolios. I am adept at working with large and complex datasets, performing quantitative analysis to assess model behavior and portfolio response, and translating technical results into clear, actionable insight for both technical and non-technical stakeholders.My professional work is built on a strong research foundation in atmospheric science and tropical meteorology, with particular emphasis on tropical cyclones and hurricanes. Through research experiences with organizations including CIRA (Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere) and COAPS (Center for Ocean–Atmospheric Prediction Studies), I gained hands-on experience analyzing observational and numerical model data, evaluating forecast performance, and investigating large-scale and mesoscale processes governing high-impact weather. This included working with reanalysis datasets, numerical weather prediction output, and statistical evaluation methods to better understand forecast skill, uncertainty, and atmospheric variability.Academically, I hold a Master’s degree in Meteorology and Atmospheric Science from Penn State University and a dual Bachelor of Science (Honors) from Florida State University. My graduate research focused on tropical cyclone structure and dynamics, strengthening my expertise in numerical modeling, atmospheric dynamics, and scientific programming and data analysis. Throughout my academic career, I maintained a strong record of performance and consistently pursued opportunities to apply theory to real-world atmospheric problems.

Experience

1. Senior Catastrophe Risk Modeler

   Tokio Marine HCC

   Mar 2025 — Present · Duluth, GA, US

   CORE RESPONSIBILITIES: Leverage advanced expertise in atmospheric science and tropical meteorology, integrated with engineering and catastrophe modeling principles, to support natural catastrophe risk assessment within the insurance and reinsurance ecosystem.• CATASTROPHE MODEL DEVELOPMENT: Contribute to model research and development across multiple perils, including tropical cyclone, flood, earthquake, and other atmospheric hazards. Support enhancement of internal models and development of analytical solutions for Tokio Marine Holdings and Group companies. Lead defined model development initiatives, deliver reproducible results, prepare technical documentation, and clearly communicate findings to technical and executive stakeholders.• CATASTROPHE MODEL VALIDATION: Support development and implementation of benchmarking frameworks to evaluate and validate vendor and internal model components, including hazard, vulnerability, and loss modules. Perform comparative analyses to assess model performance across portfolios, use cases, and peril-region combinations.• ENTERPRISE RISK MANAGEMENT (TMHD): Support ERM initiatives by reviewing capital modeling assumptions, developing custom views of risk, and estimating PMLs for under-modeled perils and regions. Contribute to exposure management, live event forecasting, and post-event loss analysis. Apply scientific expertise to climate change research and assessment of physical risk impacts.• NAT CAT CENTER OF EXCELLENCE: Share research, technical insight, and market intelligence across Tokio Marine Group companies. Support training, cross-team collaboration, data requests, and ad hoc analytical initiatives to promote a science-driven risk culture.• SOLUTION DEVELOPMENT: Collaborate with modeling teams, developers, and vendors to support research and creation of practical, scalable analytical tools and solutions for internal and stakeholder use.

Education

• Penn State University

  Master's degree, Meteorology and Atmospheric Science

• Florida State University Honors Program

  Bachelor's of Science (B.S.), Meteorology and Physical Science