Azhar Iqbal

About Azhar Iqbal

Azhar Iqbal is a director and econometrician at Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, based in New York, NY. With 20 years of experience as a market economist/econometrician and in academic world, Azhar leads the Economics group’s quantitative analysis as well as modeling and forecasting of macro and financial variables. He writes economic commentary which have been cited or republished by major media outlets such as The Financial Times, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, Yahoo-Finance and NPR. He presents the U.S. and global economic outlook to different groups within Wells Fargo as well as speak to external clients and media outlets.Azhar won 2012, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2021 and 2023 NABE Best Paper Awards, 2010, 2016 and 2025 Edmund A. Mennis Awards and the 2019 Daniel Meckstroth Award for best research papers from the National Association of Business Economics (NABE). Azhar taught a graduate course, Advanced Business and Economic Forecasting, at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte. Azhar’s co-authored book, Economic and Business Forecasting: Analyzing and Interpreting Econometric Results, was published by Wiley in March 2014. His second book, Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era, was published by Wiley in 2017.For 12 of the past 15 years, Azhar spoke at the American Economic Association meetings. Additionally, he has spoken at over 50 international conferences including the Econometric Society meetings and big data/machine learning conferences. He has published over 40 research papers in leading academic and esteemed economics journals such as the Canadian Journal of Economics, Global Economy Journal, Business Economics and Journal of Business Forecasting. His interests focus on business cycle analysis, monetary policy, macroeconomics, econometric forecasting, big data/machine learning and large language models/Agentic AI.Before joining Wells Fargo in 2007, he was an economist and lecturer at the University of Karachi in Pakistan. Azhar has three master’s degrees. He earned his master’s degree in economic forecasting from the University at Albany, State University of New York, where he also earned a Certificate of Graduate Study in economic forecasting. He also has master’s degrees in applied economics from University of Karachi, and in econometrics and mathematics from the University of the Punjab in Lahore, Pakistan.

Experience

1. Director and Econometrician

   Wells Fargo

   Aug 2007 — Present · New York, NY, US

   With 20 years of experience as a market economist/econometrician and in academic world, I lead the Economics group’s quantitative analysis as well as modeling and forecasting of macro and financial variables. My work has been published in leading academic journals and cited by major media outlets such as The Financial Times, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, Yahoo-Finance and NPR. My models employ SAS and advanced econometric techniques including DFM, BVAR, Cointegration-ECM, Probit, Ordered Probit, Quantile Regression and ARIMA-GARCH. Created a framework which utilizes Machine Learning/Statistical Data Mining techniques ( & run over 30 million simulations) to predict recessions. Developed a framework which employs the FOMC’s minutes/statements (using text mining and natural languages processing analysis) to forecast inflation, interest rates and recessions.Created the Animal Spirit Index to quantify and classify economic agents ‘sentiments into optimism and pessimism. Pioneered a framework to predict the state of the commercial real estate sector for the U.S. and top 60 regional markets. Creator of the first-ever model to predict probabilities of soft-landing, stagflation and recession for the U.S economy. Winner of the 2010, 2016 & 2025 Edmund A. Mennis Best Paper Award; Winner of the 2012, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2021 & 2023 NABE Best Paper Award and winner of the 2019 Daniel Meckstroth Award, by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE).For 12 of the past 15 years, I spoke at the American Economic Association Meetings. I have also spoken at over 50 international conferences including at Big Data/Machine Learning Conferences. My first book, Economic and Business Forecasting: Analyzing and Interpreting Econometric Results, was published by Wiley in March 2014. My second book, Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era: Incomplete data, Imperfect Markets, was published in January 2017 also by Wiley.

Education

• University of Karachi

  Master of Applied Sciences, Applied Economics; Urban Economics and Industrial Economics

• University of Punjab

  Master of Arts, Econometrics and Mathematics

• University at Albany, State University of New York

  Certificate of Graduate Study, Economic Forecasting

  2006 — 2008

• University at Albany

  Master, Economic Forecasting

  2006 — 2008

Skills

• Macroeconomics
• Data Modeling
• Applied Econometrics
• Statistical Modeling
• Banking
• Sas
• Data Analysis
• Investment Banking
• Mathematics
• Quantitative Analysis
• Excel
• Analytical Skills
• Forecasting
• Econometrics
• Data Mining
• E Views
• Research
• Modeling
• Teaching
• Fixed Income
• Bloomberg
• Microsoft Excel
• Analytics
• Spss
• Business Cycle Analysis
• Financial Modeling
• Quantitative Analytics
• Business Analysis
• Analysis
• Statistics
• Economics